Crude oil prices resumed their upward trajectory on Thursday, nearing three-week highs, as investors closely monitor developments in US-Iran nuclear negotiations that could reshape global supply dynamics.
Price Action
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 1.3% to $63.06 per barrel, recovering from a session low of $62.14. Brent crude gained 1.4%, reaching $67.05, after briefly dipping to $66.05 earlier in the session. The rebound follows Wednesday’s losses, where WTI retreated 2% from a three-week high of $64.83, and Brent dropped 2.5% from a peak of $68.61 marked on April 4.
Diplomatic Developments: Nuclear Talks in Focus
Market sentiment remains tethered to geopolitical signals as Washington and Tehran prepare for a third round of indirect talks aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear accord. Any breakthrough could pave the way for a phased easing of US sanctions on Iranian crude exports, potentially unlocking additional barrels into the global market.
Despite the Biden administration’s efforts to revive the deal, the shadow of prior sanctions lingers. Under former President Donald Trump, sweeping measures were imposed, targeting Iran’s oil sector and even extending to Chinese refiners, intensifying economic pressure on Tehran during past negotiations.
US-China Trade Overhang
Parallel to energy diplomacy, trade tensions with China remain a critical variable. President Trump reiterated ambitions for a “fair” trade agreement but warned of renewed tariff threats should negotiations falter. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced the stance, dismissing any suggestion of a unilateral tariff rollback and emphasizing that tariff adjustments would not exceed 100%. He noted the absence of a definitive timeline, suggesting that rebalancing efforts may stretch over the next two to three years.
Additionally, reports indicate the White House may consider easing tariffs on Chinese automotive parts amid growing lobbying from the domestic car industry.
OPEC+ Pressure Builds
Meanwhile, fresh signals from OPEC+ suggest that the alliance may greenlight another output increase in June—marking a second consecutive monthly hike. If confirmed, the move could reintroduce downward pressure on prices as the group seeks to balance demand recovery with concerns over market saturation.
The confluence of diplomatic maneuvering, supply-side recalibrations, and ongoing geopolitical risk continues to set the stage for volatility in global energy markets.
