Deposit Bonus from broker “Agena Markets”
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Deposit Bonus from broker “AETOS”
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RBA resumes data-dependent approach
In contrast to other major central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked interest rates in November under its new chair Michelle Bullock after a four-month pause. But the announcement was well anticipated and a slight dovish tweak in guidance was enough to hammer the Australian dollar.
The central bank judged that another quarter percentage rate increase to 4.35%–the highest in twelve years–was necessary to achieve its 2.0% midpoint inflation target, as progress on inflation had been slower than previously anticipated, despite passing its peak. Nevertheless, the RBA refrained from providing any commitment to additional tightening, linking the future path of rates to a data-dependent approach as the Fed did.
Employment growth to strengthen but nothing cheering expected
Thursday’s employment report for October will be the first piece of data information after the RBA’s latest policy meeting and given the central bank’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment, aussie traders might be sensitive to the headlines.
That said, the results may not excite traders. Analysts foresee a mixed report, with jobs growth accelerating by 20k in October from 6k previously and the unemployment rate inching up to 3.7% from 3.6%. That could still be among the weakest surveys so far in 2023.
Recall that job creation was three times larger in Australia during the previous months, while the unemployment rate was ranging between 3.5%-3.7% throughout the year. Hence, the data must surprise significantly to fuel strong volatility in the aussie.
Rate expectations
Perhaps, the monthly CPI indicator due on November 29th could be a bigger market mover following the continuous increase in October to 5.6% y/y. Futures markets are currently pointing to steady interest rates in December, but they reflect a potential for another rate increase to 4.6% at some point during February-September 2024 as the central bank does not expect inflation to return to 2.0% before 2025.
On the other hand, the RBA believes that the unemployment rate could stretch up to 4.2% in 2024–the highest since early 2022. Taking into account the recent record growth in population and the supply restraints in the housing sector, household spending could keep supporting inflation.
Interestingly, quarterly wage growth hit a fourteen-year high of 1.3% in Q3, suggesting that employees can still bargain for higher payments despite the surge in population. The problem here is that if the positive trend in wages continues, the RBA might have some difficulty in achieving its inflation target.
AUD/USD
Turning to FX markets, AUDUSD resumed its positive momentum after the upbeat wage data earlier today, stretching Tuesday’s rocket rally above the key nearby resistance of 0.6520 and to a high of 0.6540. A few hours later, a soft positive surprise in US retail sales pressed the pair back below that ceiling.
Investors will look at whether the employment report can help the pair reach its falling 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) higher at 0.6565 on Thursday, and perhaps challenge the 0.6600 psychological mark too.
A disappointing report could alternatively squeeze the pair towards the 0.6450 constraining zone, while a more aggressive decline could take a breather around the 20- and 50-day EMAs at 0.6400.
Although the 10-year US Treasury yield held steady comfortably below the psychological zone of 5%, the US dollar was able to stage a comeback against most of its major counterparts as the flash US PMIs for October suggested that the world’s largest economy fared better than expected during the first month of the fourth quarter, with the manufacturing index escaping a contraction for the first time since April, and the composite index rising to 51.0 from 50.2.
This came in huge contrast to the Euro-area PMIs for the month that were released earlier in the day and painted an even uglier picture than they did in September. The divergence allowed euro/dollar bears to jump into the action from near the crossroads of the pair’s 50-day moving average and the key resistance barrier of 1.0665, suggesting the latest recovery may have been just a corrective wave within the broader downtrend.
The slide may extend, and the pair could soon retest this month’s lows if Thursday’s data reveal astounding performance of the US economy in Q3. Expectations are for a solid 4.2% annualized growth rate, with the risks perhaps tilted to the upside as the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimates that the US economy may have grown 5.4% during that period.
The fact that Treasury yields did not track the dollar’s rebound may be an indication that investors were still reluctant to add to bets of another hike by the Fed after the better PMIs. Indeed, according to Fed funds futures, there is only a 40% chance for one final 25bps increase by January, while there are still around 80bps worth of rate reductions penciled in for next year. That said, the implied path could well be lifted, and rate cuts could be scaled back if upcoming data continues to point to a resilient US economy.
The aussie was among the currencies that outperformed the dollar yesterday, spiking even higher today after data showed that Australia’s inflation slowed by less than expected in Q3 and that the monthly y/y rate for September rose to 5.6% from 5.2%. This prompted investors to add to their bets of more hikes by the RBA, with the probability of another quarter-point increase at the November gathering rising to around 42%.
The yen attempted a recovery at some point yesterday, but the rebound in the dollar pinned the dollar/yen pair back near the highly monitored 150 territory, with traders biting their nails in anticipation of any signs of intervention by Japanese authorities. What could reveal whether officials are ready to act now or whether the level at which they feel comfortable intervening has shifted higher, may be a stellar US GDP print tomorrow that could force the pair to pierce through that psychological ceiling.
Wall Street closed Tuesday in the green after upbeat forecasts from Verizon, Coca-Cola and other firms sparked optimism regarding the health of US businesses, encouraging investors to increase their risk exposure. The fact that the Fed’s implied rate path was not lifted after the better PMIs may have also helped Wall Street, which seems to be slowly shifting its attention away from the Middle East conflict.
After the closing bell, both Microsoft and Alphabet reported better-than-expected results, but the performance of their cloud services diverged. Microsoft’s Azure took off during the third quarter, but Alphabet’s cloud business saw its slowest growth in at least 11 quarters. After today’s close, it will be the turn of Meta Platforms to announce results.
In another sign that the financial world is turning its focus away from geopolitics, oil prices fell for the third straight day yesterday, perhaps as weak business surveys from the Eurozone and the UK weighed on the demand outlook.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 5% in its upcoming meeting, maintaining a hawkish stance in the face of rising inflation.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has weakened against the US Dollar (USD) since the BoC’s last rate hike in July, influenced by ongoing inflation concerns. Inflation in Canada fell to 3.8% in September from 4% in August, but the BoC remains uneasy about its persistently high levels.
While some signs of a cooling housing market and stagnant economic activity exist, the BoC could signal future tightening due to its inflation worries.
EURCAD is inching slowly towards the 76% of the Fibonacci retracement zone; which I usually consider to be a key level. The trendline resistance serves as a further confluence, as well as the 200-day moving average. This means that the scenario is likely to turn bearish in the next few hours.
Analyst’s Expectations:
CADCHF is currently creating a pattern that is largely similar to the inverted head-and-shoulder pattern. The current state of the market is a retest of the bottom – a demand zone, and we can expect to see a bullish pressure from that zine in the meantime.
Analyst’s Expectations:
CADJPY is currently resting on the 50-day moving average, and very close to the trendline support which can be considered a confluence. In my opinion however, I will be waiting to spot an entry from the 100-day moving average as the demand zone is considered to be a stronger confirmation since it is formed at the 76% of the Fibonacci retracement.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Conclusion
The trading of CFDs comes at a risk. Thus, to succeed, you have to manage risks properly. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.
This report was written to illuminate the top misunderstood Forex areas and help Forex traders succeed and stay profitable. The information is presented in a readable way for beginners as well as advanced traders that want to tune up their trading approach and increase their success rate. You will learn by stressing the common mistakes and often revealing obvious but underestimated trading techniques. Most traders start by asking the correct question: “What’s the current market trend?”, but then most of them fail to determine the trend correctly and almost all traders miss the next important question: “How reliable is the current trend?”
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Deposit Bonus from broker Profit Trade
Deposit Bonus from broker PaxForex
Any dispute or situation not covered by these Promotion Terms will be resolved by our management in a manner it deems to be the fairest to all concerned. That decision shall be final and/or binding on all entrants. If these Promotion Terms are translated into a language other than English, then the English version of the Rules will be prevailing.
An important concept in technical analysis is the determination of the trend of the market. In last month’s technical analysis article titled ‘Determining the Direction and Strength of a Trend’, we have looked into how to determine the direction and strength of the trend using an indicator called ADX. This article will further elaborate on this important facet of classical technical analysis with a detailed study of trendlines.
In addition to helping to identify the prevailing trend, trendlines offer clear indicative support and resistance levels to the price movement. As a trader or investor, identifying those levels of support and resistance are key ingredients to successful trading. A support level is a price level that has strong buying strength that can absorb all the selling strength leading to an arrest to further declines in price. On the other hand, a resistance level is a price level where sellers are so abundant that it prevents further increase in price. For an effective trading strategy, such support and resistance levels must be determined. This article will discuss the construction of trendlines, use of trendline in support and resistance analysis, and extended trendlines
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Take two traders.
Give them the same starting capital, the same trading platform, the same market, and the same trading system with precise rules for entry and exit.
Come back a month later and waht will you find?
One trader will be up 20%. The other will be down 40%.
It’s fascinating, isn’t it, how two people can have the same opportunities in life, and yet get very different results.
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National Futures Association is a congressionally authorized self-regulatory organization of the United States futures industry. Its mission is to provide innovative regulatory programs and services that protect investors and ensure market integrity. NFA has prepared this booklet as part of its continuing public education efforts to provide information to potential investors. The booklet presents an overview of the retail off-exchange foreign currency market and provides other important information that investors need to know before they invest in the off-exchange foreign currency market.
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Please take the time to read and evaluate this information carefully. Turn the TV off, kick the kids out of the room, and give this the serious attention it deserves. Every word in this document is here for a reason. I fully realize that most will take the information seriously, but that some will not. That is OK with me. I am not sharing this to gain a single thing from anyone. I do not want part of your profits, nor do I seek any monetary compensation from you. You can share this with anybody, or keep it to yourself. You can even tell all your friends you invented the model. I don’t care. You are completely free to incorporate as little or as much of this as you see fit into your trading style. I only want you to make money.
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